Best Books and Reports 2008
The Future Survey "Top 30"
Selected by Michael Marien
These brief versions of abstracts published in Volume 30 of Future Survey
(2008)—6% of the 500 yearly total—have been chosen for their breadth,
importance, originality, authoritativeness, readability, and/or long-term
perspective.
WORLD FUTURES
Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years
Vaclav Smil (MIT Press, Sept 2008/307p).
An awesome survey by the author of 23 other broad-ranging books on
global food and energy, identifying major factors that will shape the
future, their probabilities and potential impacts. Looks at fatal
discontinuities, unfolding social trends, and environmental changes.
Warns that preoccupation with terrorism should not blind us to two much
more likely and pervasive threats: another mega-war and one or two
pandemics. (FS 30:9/301) Check
price/buy book.
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World
National Intelligence Council (USGPO, Nov 2008/120p).
The 4th in a NIC series that seeks to identify key drivers
and developments. The post-WWII system will be almost unrecognizable by
2025. Relative certainties: shift in wealth and power from West to East,
a global multipolar system, increasing potential for conflict, and more
economic growth. Key uncertainties: the energy transition, climate
change, trade barriers, arms races, etc. (FS 30:12/451)
Check
price/buy book.
2008 State of the Future
Jerome Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu (WFUNA, Aug
2008/103p+CD).
The 12th annual report of the Millennium Project, derived
from participants in 31 Project Nodes. Updates the very useful overview
of 15 Global Challenges; also sections on environmental security issues,
government future strategy units, a proposed Global Energy Information
System, and the annual State of the Future Index. (FS 30:9/302)
Check
price/buy book.
Towards a Grand Strategy for an Uncertain World
Gen. (ret.) John Shalikashvili
et al. (CSIS, Dec 2007/153p).
Five retired top US and European
Military leaders look at six "prime challenges" facing the global
community: population growth, climate change, energy security, rise of
the irrational (decline of respect for evidence and science), weakening
of the nation state and of world institutions, and "the dark side of
globalization" (terrorism, organized crime, migration, dramatic
diseases). (FS 30:5/151)
Global Politics in the Human Interest
(Fifth Edition). Mel Gurtov (Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2007/391p).
An overview of issues from a "Global Humanist" perspective, advocating
humane governance and development, a broadened definition of "security,"
promoting democracy, green taxation, and a "new realism" agenda that
addresses the overarching crisis of unfilled human needs. Clearly
written, well-documented, and up-front on values. (FS 30:1/012)
Check
price/buy book.
Peace First: A New Model to End War
Uri Savir (Berrett-Koehler, Sept 2008/233p).
Israel’s chief negotiator for the Oslo Accords with the PLA argues that
old-fashioned principles of peacemaking are ineffective, and offers a
new, broader model based on four pillars: participatory peace and
glocalization, building a peace culture, creating joint cross-border
ventures, and creative diplomacy. Offers many fresh and thoughtful
ideas. (FS 30:10/369)
Check
price/buy book.
Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet
Jeffrey Sachs (Penguin Press, March 2008/386p).
Director of the Columbia U Earth Institute emphasizes our common fate on
a crowded planet. By looking ahead, husbanding resources more sensibly,
maximizing gains from sci/tech, we can find a path to prosperity that
can spread to all regions of the world in the coming decades, while
ending extreme poverty by 2025. (FS 30:11/401)
Check
price/buy book.
Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization
Lester R. Brown (W.W. Norton, Jan 2008/398p).
An updated version of Plan B (2003) and Plan B 2.0
(2006),
pointing to a civilization in trouble and calling for a "Great
Mobilization" involving a worldwide carbon tax, moving away from the
$700 billion/year in harmful subsidies, various climate stabilization
measures (harnessing renewables, halting deforestation, phasing out all
coal-fired plants), a new US Dept of Global Security, and a Plan B
Budget for earth restoration and social goals. (FS 30:1/014)
Check
price/buy book.
ENVIRONMENT/ENERGY/FOOD
Global Environment Outlook (GEO-4)
UN Environment Programme (UNEP, 2007/540p).
The 4th report of some 400 scientists and policymakers and
>50 GEO Collaborating Centers, with chapters on growing environmental
degradation, the lack of urgency in tackling GHG emissions,
unsustainable land use, endangered aquatic ecosystems, continuing
biodiversity loss, regional perspectives, the need to address poverty,
governance for sustainability, the outlook to 2015, and options for
action. The best global overview of environmental trends. (FS 30:1/015)
2009 State of the World: Into a Warming World
Worldwatch Institute (W.W. Norton, Jan 2009/262p).
The 26th annual report on (lack of) progress toward a
sustainable society, with chapters and brief essays on the impending
"perfect storm," projected climate change and possible tipping points,
making farming and land use climate-friendly, building ecological
resilience in urban and rural areas, global climate agreement issues,
etc. The broadest and most up-to-date overview of climate change and
what to do about it. (FS 30:12/459)
Check
price/buy book.
Climatic Cataclysm: The Foreign Policy and National Security
Implications of Climate Change
Ed. by Kurt M. Campbell (Brookings Institution Press, July
2008/237p).
Three very long and scary scenarios of "Expected Climate Change" by 2040
(more extreme weather events), "Severe Climate Change" by 2040
(threatening every port city in Europe), and "Catastrophic Climate
Change" between 2040 and 2100 (major US cities likely to be
uninhabitable after 2040; an across-the-board decline in human
development indicators). (FS 30:7/256)
Check
price/buy book.
Sudden and Disruptive Climate Change: Exploring the Real Risks
Ed. by Michael C. MacCracken et al. (Earthscan, Feb
2008/326p).
The lead essay cogently summarizes "Ten Reasons Why Climate Change May
be More Severe than Projected" and cautions against downplaying extreme
possibilities. Also includes papers on potentials for rapid melting of
ice and amplified sea level rise, for rapid changes in ecosystems, and
for accelerating action to limit climate change. (FS 30:4/105)
Check
price/buy book.
World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights
International Energy Agency (IEA/OECD, Nov 2007).
The world’s primary energy needs in the Reference Scenario are projected
to grow by 55% between 2005 and 2030, at an average rate of 1.8%/year,
what oil demand up 37%. Nearly half of this demand growth will come from
China and India. In the Alternative Scenario, global demand grows by
only 1.3%/year (FS 30:3/052)
Check
price/buy book.
Energy for Sustainability: Technology, Planning, Policy
John Randolph and Gilbert Masters (Island Press, Aug 2008/790p).
A remarkably broad-ranging textbook, with chapters on energy sources and
sustainability, planning and visioning energy futures, energy life-cycle
assessment, buildings and energy, sustainable electricity with
distributed resources and PV systems, sustainable transport and land
use, addressing market failure and barriers, and energy policy and
planning at the federal, state, and community levels. (FS 30:11/415)
Check
price/buy book.
Hot, Flat, and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution
Thomas L. Friedman (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, Sept 2008/438p).
Another best-seller from the New York Times foreign affairs
columnist, making a spirited case for the US to become the world leader
in clean energy technology and promoting conservation. By stating its
intention to "outgreen China," the US could lead China and the world
down a greener path. "Green is the new red, white, and blue." (FS
30:9/347)
Check
price/buy book.
America’s Food: What You Don’t Know About What You Eat
Harvey Blatt (MIT Press, Oct 2008/336p).
Describes in great detail how the world of food production has changed,
with chapters on size and income of farms, soil loss, growing use of
pesticides and nitrogen fertilizer, grain farming, growth of GM crops
and organic farms, industrial factory farming of chickens, beef and
milk, seafood and the rise of aquaculture, fruits and vegetables, food
processing, eating poorly and too much, and defective farm policy. Very
readable. (FS 30:11/431)
Check
price/buy book.
Feeding People Is Easy
Colin Tudge (Pari Publishing, Oct 2007/159p).
British science writer notes that agriculture has rarely been designed
to feed people or to work within the bounds of sound biology. He
proposes an "Enlightened Agriculture" to provide healthy food for all,
while also creating agreeable ways of life for farmers and everyone else
in the food chain. Contrary to industrialized farming, a "New
Agrarianism" of more small and family-run farms is needed to prevent
unemployment and produce good food. An old argument, smartly updated. (FS
30:5/176)
Check
price/buy book.
ECONOMY/SOCIETY/TECHNOLOGY
The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great
Credit Crash
Charles R. Morris (Public Affairs, March 2008/194p).
A lawyer, former banker, and author of 10 books on economics worries
about the problems of subprime mortgages and subprime-like assets,
warning that the response of the US financial sector, steeped in market
dogmatism, has been to downplay and conceal. Right on target,
unfortunately. ALSO SEE FS 30:5/194-196 for financial crisis
early warnings by George Soros, Nouriel Roubini, and Jeff Faux. (FS
30:5/193)
Check
price/buy book.
The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Costs of the Iraq Conflict
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Linda J. Bilmes (W.W. Norton, Sept 2008
update/357p).
A very conservative estimate of total economic costs to the US ranges
from $2.7 trillion to $5 trillion, and does not reflect the huge cost to
Iraq or the rest of the world.In the long run, "diversion of attention
from critical global issues" may be the largest legacy of "this
unfortunate war," which has also diverted resources away from spending
on America. (FS 30:9/318)
Check
price/buy book.
A Government Ill Executed: The Decline of the Federal Service and How
to Reverse It
Paul C. Light (Harvard U Press, May 2008/278p).
The federal government today has an agenda of "staggering reach" that it
cannot execute well, needless layers of management, an inefficient civil
service system, and dispersed accountability. Needed changes
consistently focus on recruiting, resources, and discipline. Foreword by
Paul Volcker, former chair of the 1989 National Commission on the Public
Service. (FS 30:6/317)
Check
price/buy book.
Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow’s Big Changes
Mark J. Penn (Twelve, 2007/425p).
A chief advisor to Sen. Hillary Clnton describes "the niching of
America" as intense identity groups growing and moving in crisscrossing
directions. Brief portraits are provided of 75 groups in 15 categories
regarding love and sex (cougars, office romancers), work life (the
working retired, ardent Amazons), race and religion, health and
wellness, family life, politics, teens, food and drink, lifestyle,
fashion, technology, leisure, education, and international. (FS 30:3/066)
Check
price/buy book.
Trends Shaping Education: 2008 Edition
OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (OECD, Aug 2008/86p;
free download).
A book designed to support long-term strategic thinking in education,
with 26 major trends grouped into nine broad themes: aging societies,
global challenges, economic globalization, a changing world of work and
jobs, a learning society, the next generation of ICT, citizenship, more
diverse families, and growing affluence. General questions related to
education are raised for each trend. (FS 30:10/381)
Check
price/buy book.
Anticipate the School You Want: Futurizing K-12 Education
Arthur B. Shostak (Rowman & Littlefield Education, Sept 2008/157p).
A teacher of sociology and futures for 42 years describes the
futuristics framework, the futures problem solving program, the "futures
committee" to promote futuristic schooling, schooling in 2015, high
schools of the future and their required courses, and learning aids.
ALSO SEE Five Minds for the Future by Howard Gardner
(Harvard Business School press, 2007; FS 30:7/293) on
intelligences we should develop: the disciplined mind, the synthesizing
mind, the creating mind, the respectful mind, and the ethical mind. (FS
30:10/390)
Check
price/buy book.
Imagining America in 2033: How the Country Put Itself Together after
Bush
Herbert J. Gans (U of Michigan Press, Sept 2008/210p).
An "imagined history of the first third of the 21C" through four
presidential administrations, three of them headed by liberal Democrats.
Chapters on healing the economy, moving toward world peace and planetary
survival, fighting poverty in the US, family and community, education,
and democratizing the polity. An upbeat scenario for downbeat times. (FS
30:9/348)
Check
price/buy book.
Technology’s Promise: Expert Knowledge on the Transformation of
Business And Society
William E. Halal (Palgrave Macmillan, Aug 2008/183p).
Full report of the GWU TechCast project, providing consensus forecasts
by some 100 experts on developments to 2030 in six areas:
energy/environment, technologies of abundance (nanotech, robots),
infotech/e-commerce, mastery over life (bio-genetics), transportation,
and space. A skillful and readable synthesis of many forecasts. ALSO SEE
The Global Technology Revolution 2020 (RAND, 2006;
FS
30:3/090) for a somewhat similar overview. (FS 30:7/280)
Check
price/buy book.
METHODS
Future Savvy: Identifying Trends to Make Better Decisions and Manage
Uncertainty
Adam Gordon (AMACOM, Oct 2008/294p).
A UK futures consultant, formerly working in the US, describes common
problems in forecasting, the limits of quantitative forecasting, bias
traps, problems in trend recognition, and questions to ask of any
forecast. A valuable introductory user’s guide that takes "a middle
course between an uncritical reliance on prediction and overcynical
dismissal of it." (FS 30:11/449)
Check
price/buy book.
Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards In Global
Politics
Ed. by Francis Fukuyama (Brookings Institution Press, Oct
2007/198p).
Low-probability wild cards have become a key concern for policymakers.
Essays consider the East Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, how
to think about catastrophe, how scenarios can help, and a GBN survey of
seven implausible scenarios that could be game-changers. Blindside
experts blindsided: no consideration of the financial/economic meltdown
of late 2008, which, in principle, could have been considered. (FS
30:7/289)
Check
price/buy book.
Worst-Case Scenarios
Cass R. Sunstein (Harvard U Press, Nov 2007/340p).
Many people plan far too much for unlikely catastrophes, and many others
plan too little. Reactions to risks and worst-case scenarios are
intuitive and analytical. When emotions are engaged, people tend to
ignore the question of probability. When governments impose excessive
precautions they often fall victim to "probability neglect" (the
"best-case" thinking of optimists, however, is a related problem). A
thoughtful essay on scenario thinking. (FS 30:7/290)
Check
price/buy book.
The Creative City: A Toolkit for Urban Innovators (Second
Edition)
Charles Landry (Earthscan, Nov 2008/299p).
Author of The Art of City Making
(2006; FS 29:9/330) seeks
to provide a more integrated and holistic approach to thinking about
cities and their assets, broadly considered. Chapters describe urban
creativity to explain why some cities succeed, vital and sustainable
places, the urban innovations matrix to assess good and bad practice,
balancing the various domains of capital, and encouraging "the learning
city." Sophisticated and inspiring. (FS 30:12/473)
Check
price/buy book.
Leader to Leader 2: Enduring Insights on Leadership
Ed. by Frances Hesselbein and Alan Shrader (Jossey-Bass, April
2008/364p).
The 35 wise essays From the Leader to Leader Institute’s journal,
describe leadership as an enabling art, improving personal
effectiveness, maintaining focus, developing people and teams, leading
high-performance organizations, leading strategically in a world that
demands innovation, and a 30-point checklist for successful non-profit
leaders. An outstanding and timely primer, when effective leadership is
needed more than ever to shape the future. (FS 30:4/143)
Check
price/buy book.
Selected by Michael Marien
Vaclav Smil (MIT Press, Sept 2008/307p).
An awesome survey by the author of 23 other broad-ranging books on global food and energy, identifying major factors that will shape the future, their probabilities and potential impacts. Looks at fatal discontinuities, unfolding social trends, and environmental changes. Warns that preoccupation with terrorism should not blind us to two much more likely and pervasive threats: another mega-war and one or two pandemics. (FS 30:9/301) Check price/buy book.
National Intelligence Council (USGPO, Nov 2008/120p).
The 4th in a NIC series that seeks to identify key drivers and developments. The post-WWII system will be almost unrecognizable by 2025. Relative certainties: shift in wealth and power from West to East, a global multipolar system, increasing potential for conflict, and more economic growth. Key uncertainties: the energy transition, climate change, trade barriers, arms races, etc. (FS 30:12/451) Check price/buy book.
Jerome Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu (WFUNA, Aug 2008/103p+CD).
The 12th annual report of the Millennium Project, derived from participants in 31 Project Nodes. Updates the very useful overview of 15 Global Challenges; also sections on environmental security issues, government future strategy units, a proposed Global Energy Information System, and the annual State of the Future Index. (FS 30:9/302) Check price/buy book.
Gen. (ret.) John Shalikashvili et al. (CSIS, Dec 2007/153p).
Five retired top US and European Military leaders look at six "prime challenges" facing the global community: population growth, climate change, energy security, rise of the irrational (decline of respect for evidence and science), weakening of the nation state and of world institutions, and "the dark side of globalization" (terrorism, organized crime, migration, dramatic diseases). (FS 30:5/151)
(Fifth Edition). Mel Gurtov (Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2007/391p).
An overview of issues from a "Global Humanist" perspective, advocating humane governance and development, a broadened definition of "security," promoting democracy, green taxation, and a "new realism" agenda that addresses the overarching crisis of unfilled human needs. Clearly written, well-documented, and up-front on values. (FS 30:1/012) Check price/buy book.
Uri Savir (Berrett-Koehler, Sept 2008/233p).
Israel’s chief negotiator for the Oslo Accords with the PLA argues that old-fashioned principles of peacemaking are ineffective, and offers a new, broader model based on four pillars: participatory peace and glocalization, building a peace culture, creating joint cross-border ventures, and creative diplomacy. Offers many fresh and thoughtful ideas. (FS 30:10/369) Check price/buy book.
Jeffrey Sachs (Penguin Press, March 2008/386p).
Director of the Columbia U Earth Institute emphasizes our common fate on a crowded planet. By looking ahead, husbanding resources more sensibly, maximizing gains from sci/tech, we can find a path to prosperity that can spread to all regions of the world in the coming decades, while ending extreme poverty by 2025. (FS 30:11/401) Check price/buy book.
Lester R. Brown (W.W. Norton, Jan 2008/398p).
An updated version of Plan B (2003) and Plan B 2.0 (2006), pointing to a civilization in trouble and calling for a "Great Mobilization" involving a worldwide carbon tax, moving away from the $700 billion/year in harmful subsidies, various climate stabilization measures (harnessing renewables, halting deforestation, phasing out all coal-fired plants), a new US Dept of Global Security, and a Plan B Budget for earth restoration and social goals. (FS 30:1/014) Check price/buy book.
UN Environment Programme (UNEP, 2007/540p).
The 4th report of some 400 scientists and policymakers and >50 GEO Collaborating Centers, with chapters on growing environmental degradation, the lack of urgency in tackling GHG emissions, unsustainable land use, endangered aquatic ecosystems, continuing biodiversity loss, regional perspectives, the need to address poverty, governance for sustainability, the outlook to 2015, and options for action. The best global overview of environmental trends. (FS 30:1/015)
Worldwatch Institute (W.W. Norton, Jan 2009/262p).
The 26th annual report on (lack of) progress toward a sustainable society, with chapters and brief essays on the impending "perfect storm," projected climate change and possible tipping points, making farming and land use climate-friendly, building ecological resilience in urban and rural areas, global climate agreement issues, etc. The broadest and most up-to-date overview of climate change and what to do about it. (FS 30:12/459) Check price/buy book.
Ed. by Kurt M. Campbell (Brookings Institution Press, July 2008/237p).
Three very long and scary scenarios of "Expected Climate Change" by 2040 (more extreme weather events), "Severe Climate Change" by 2040 (threatening every port city in Europe), and "Catastrophic Climate Change" between 2040 and 2100 (major US cities likely to be uninhabitable after 2040; an across-the-board decline in human development indicators). (FS 30:7/256) Check price/buy book.
Ed. by Michael C. MacCracken et al. (Earthscan, Feb 2008/326p).
The lead essay cogently summarizes "Ten Reasons Why Climate Change May be More Severe than Projected" and cautions against downplaying extreme possibilities. Also includes papers on potentials for rapid melting of ice and amplified sea level rise, for rapid changes in ecosystems, and for accelerating action to limit climate change. (FS 30:4/105) Check price/buy book.
International Energy Agency (IEA/OECD, Nov 2007).
The world’s primary energy needs in the Reference Scenario are projected to grow by 55% between 2005 and 2030, at an average rate of 1.8%/year, what oil demand up 37%. Nearly half of this demand growth will come from China and India. In the Alternative Scenario, global demand grows by only 1.3%/year (FS 30:3/052) Check price/buy book.
John Randolph and Gilbert Masters (Island Press, Aug 2008/790p).
A remarkably broad-ranging textbook, with chapters on energy sources and sustainability, planning and visioning energy futures, energy life-cycle assessment, buildings and energy, sustainable electricity with distributed resources and PV systems, sustainable transport and land use, addressing market failure and barriers, and energy policy and planning at the federal, state, and community levels. (FS 30:11/415) Check price/buy book.
Thomas L. Friedman (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, Sept 2008/438p).
Another best-seller from the New York Times foreign affairs columnist, making a spirited case for the US to become the world leader in clean energy technology and promoting conservation. By stating its intention to "outgreen China," the US could lead China and the world down a greener path. "Green is the new red, white, and blue." (FS 30:9/347) Check price/buy book.
Harvey Blatt (MIT Press, Oct 2008/336p).
Describes in great detail how the world of food production has changed, with chapters on size and income of farms, soil loss, growing use of pesticides and nitrogen fertilizer, grain farming, growth of GM crops and organic farms, industrial factory farming of chickens, beef and milk, seafood and the rise of aquaculture, fruits and vegetables, food processing, eating poorly and too much, and defective farm policy. Very readable. (FS 30:11/431) Check price/buy book.
Colin Tudge (Pari Publishing, Oct 2007/159p).
British science writer notes that agriculture has rarely been designed to feed people or to work within the bounds of sound biology. He proposes an "Enlightened Agriculture" to provide healthy food for all, while also creating agreeable ways of life for farmers and everyone else in the food chain. Contrary to industrialized farming, a "New Agrarianism" of more small and family-run farms is needed to prevent unemployment and produce good food. An old argument, smartly updated. (FS 30:5/176) Check price/buy book.
Charles R. Morris (Public Affairs, March 2008/194p).
A lawyer, former banker, and author of 10 books on economics worries about the problems of subprime mortgages and subprime-like assets, warning that the response of the US financial sector, steeped in market dogmatism, has been to downplay and conceal. Right on target, unfortunately. ALSO SEE FS 30:5/194-196 for financial crisis early warnings by George Soros, Nouriel Roubini, and Jeff Faux. (FS 30:5/193) Check price/buy book.
Joseph E. Stiglitz and Linda J. Bilmes (W.W. Norton, Sept 2008 update/357p).
A very conservative estimate of total economic costs to the US ranges from $2.7 trillion to $5 trillion, and does not reflect the huge cost to Iraq or the rest of the world.In the long run, "diversion of attention from critical global issues" may be the largest legacy of "this unfortunate war," which has also diverted resources away from spending on America. (FS 30:9/318) Check price/buy book.
Paul C. Light (Harvard U Press, May 2008/278p).
The federal government today has an agenda of "staggering reach" that it cannot execute well, needless layers of management, an inefficient civil service system, and dispersed accountability. Needed changes consistently focus on recruiting, resources, and discipline. Foreword by Paul Volcker, former chair of the 1989 National Commission on the Public Service. (FS 30:6/317) Check price/buy book.
Mark J. Penn (Twelve, 2007/425p).
A chief advisor to Sen. Hillary Clnton describes "the niching of America" as intense identity groups growing and moving in crisscrossing directions. Brief portraits are provided of 75 groups in 15 categories regarding love and sex (cougars, office romancers), work life (the working retired, ardent Amazons), race and religion, health and wellness, family life, politics, teens, food and drink, lifestyle, fashion, technology, leisure, education, and international. (FS 30:3/066) Check price/buy book.
OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (OECD, Aug 2008/86p; free download).
A book designed to support long-term strategic thinking in education, with 26 major trends grouped into nine broad themes: aging societies, global challenges, economic globalization, a changing world of work and jobs, a learning society, the next generation of ICT, citizenship, more diverse families, and growing affluence. General questions related to education are raised for each trend. (FS 30:10/381) Check price/buy book.
Arthur B. Shostak (Rowman & Littlefield Education, Sept 2008/157p).
A teacher of sociology and futures for 42 years describes the futuristics framework, the futures problem solving program, the "futures committee" to promote futuristic schooling, schooling in 2015, high schools of the future and their required courses, and learning aids. ALSO SEE Five Minds for the Future by Howard Gardner (Harvard Business School press, 2007; FS 30:7/293) on intelligences we should develop: the disciplined mind, the synthesizing mind, the creating mind, the respectful mind, and the ethical mind. (FS 30:10/390) Check price/buy book.
Herbert J. Gans (U of Michigan Press, Sept 2008/210p).
An "imagined history of the first third of the 21C" through four presidential administrations, three of them headed by liberal Democrats. Chapters on healing the economy, moving toward world peace and planetary survival, fighting poverty in the US, family and community, education, and democratizing the polity. An upbeat scenario for downbeat times. (FS 30:9/348) Check price/buy book.
William E. Halal (Palgrave Macmillan, Aug 2008/183p).
Full report of the GWU TechCast project, providing consensus forecasts by some 100 experts on developments to 2030 in six areas: energy/environment, technologies of abundance (nanotech, robots), infotech/e-commerce, mastery over life (bio-genetics), transportation, and space. A skillful and readable synthesis of many forecasts. ALSO SEE The Global Technology Revolution 2020 (RAND, 2006; FS 30:3/090) for a somewhat similar overview. (FS 30:7/280) Check price/buy book.
Adam Gordon (AMACOM, Oct 2008/294p).
A UK futures consultant, formerly working in the US, describes common problems in forecasting, the limits of quantitative forecasting, bias traps, problems in trend recognition, and questions to ask of any forecast. A valuable introductory user’s guide that takes "a middle course between an uncritical reliance on prediction and overcynical dismissal of it." (FS 30:11/449) Check price/buy book.
Ed. by Francis Fukuyama (Brookings Institution Press, Oct 2007/198p).
Low-probability wild cards have become a key concern for policymakers. Essays consider the East Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, how to think about catastrophe, how scenarios can help, and a GBN survey of seven implausible scenarios that could be game-changers. Blindside experts blindsided: no consideration of the financial/economic meltdown of late 2008, which, in principle, could have been considered. (FS 30:7/289) Check price/buy book.
Cass R. Sunstein (Harvard U Press, Nov 2007/340p).
Many people plan far too much for unlikely catastrophes, and many others plan too little. Reactions to risks and worst-case scenarios are intuitive and analytical. When emotions are engaged, people tend to ignore the question of probability. When governments impose excessive precautions they often fall victim to "probability neglect" (the "best-case" thinking of optimists, however, is a related problem). A thoughtful essay on scenario thinking. (FS 30:7/290) Check price/buy book.
Charles Landry (Earthscan, Nov 2008/299p).
Author of The Art of City Making (2006; FS 29:9/330) seeks to provide a more integrated and holistic approach to thinking about cities and their assets, broadly considered. Chapters describe urban creativity to explain why some cities succeed, vital and sustainable places, the urban innovations matrix to assess good and bad practice, balancing the various domains of capital, and encouraging "the learning city." Sophisticated and inspiring. (FS 30:12/473) Check price/buy book.
Ed. by Frances Hesselbein and Alan Shrader (Jossey-Bass, April 2008/364p).
The 35 wise essays From the Leader to Leader Institute’s journal, describe leadership as an enabling art, improving personal effectiveness, maintaining focus, developing people and teams, leading high-performance organizations, leading strategically in a world that demands innovation, and a 30-point checklist for successful non-profit leaders. An outstanding and timely primer, when effective leadership is needed more than ever to shape the future. (FS 30:4/143) Check price/buy book.
